With the 2024 Western States 100 proper across the nook, I sought after to raised perceive who can be rounding the corners come race day. In case you’re anything else like me, it is a bucket record race to your calendar, however the prospect of having in is so far off that it’s extra of an idea than a sensible chance for such a lot of folks at this level.
Simply how tricky is it to get into this match? What’s the perfect technique for purchasing in? Will I be capable to run this match earlier than my frame provides out from overuse? On this article, I dive into the numbers in an try to shed some gentle on those questions.
Breakdown of the 2024 Western States 100 Entrants
Western States is the oldest 100-mile race on this planet and draws ultrarunners from around the world to participate within the historical match. (See my earlier article for what this go back and forth looks as if.) Access into this race has persevered to develop in call for 12 months over 12 months, with just a tiny fraction of all candidates gaining access. When the 2024 Western States kicks off in a couple of days, 375 folks will toe the road. Here’s a breakdown of the way the ones 375 folks received access into the development.
2024 Western States 100 Entrants Breakdown
Supply: https://www.wser.org/automatics/
We necessarily have 3 major techniques to get into the development:
- Develop into very concerned with the development, comparable to by way of being a board member or by way of volunteering at an assist station for a few years;
- Be truly, truly speedy; or
- Achieve access throughout the race lottery.
With 72% (270) of other folks getting into by means of the lottery, that is the commonest solution to get in. That doesn’t, alternatively, imply that the percentages are to your want of having in. Since choices 1 and a pair of are restricted to roughly 100 other folks, whilst the lottery this 12 months had 9,388 other folks, I can be focusing this text at the 3rd workforce.
Western States is fairly clear with their lottery machine — they don’t do an ideal activity of selecting me — and gives an in depth breakdown of lottery statistics once a year. Right here you’ll be able to see the expansion of candidates through the years and what number of tickets they have got amassed over time. The selection of tickets an entrant has is calculated by way of 2^(n-1) the place n is the selection of years getting into the lottery with out gaining access.
The Enlargement of Western States 100 Candidates From 200o to 2024
Observe: There have been no lotteries for the 2009 and 2021 races as in every example entrants had been rolled over from the race canceled the former 12 months. Supply: https://www.wser.org/2023/11/30/2024-lottery-statistics/
On account of this logarithmically scaled price tag machine that rewards entrants who’ve been attempting for a few years, the 9,388 other folks if truth be told interprets to 53,966 overall tickets. Western States runs Monte Carlo simulations — a statistics methodology used to are expecting results of an unsure match — to turn the predicted probability of an entrant coming into the development given a undeniable price tag quantity.
The chart under main points your odds of having in for 2024. With 1 price tag, your likelihood is that not up to 1% and the ones possibilities handiest building up to above 50% with 128 tickets, which means that 8 years of getting into the lottery and now not being decided on.
In accordance with Price ticket Numbers, the Odds of Getting Into the 2024 Western States 100
Supplied those dismal possibilities, I sought after to know the way lengthy it will take a mean runner comparable to myself to get into Western States. For the sake of this calculation, I thought an applicant finished a qualification race once a year. Given the above odds and taking into account being decided on in a prior 12 months, the predicted selection of years to get into Western States is 6.79 years.
Observe that the above does now not account for extra other folks getting into the lottery through the years, which decreases one’s odds additional. If we have a look at fresh tendencies and practice a decay issue of 0.75 to replicate the exchange from the 2023 to the 2024 lottery, the predicted selection of years turns into 8.3 years.
Perseverance is the important thing to being decided on for this race. 8 years is a very long time, however should you proceed to stack up the ones qualifiers, you’ll ultimately get in. Via this level, in case your frame remains to be cooperating, you’ll be fairly skilled in ultra-distance occasions and in a excellent place to profit from the 100 miles.
A key phase to this multi-year plan is to proceed to finish Western States qualifiers. Within the subsequent phase, I damage down the qualifying races and discover the panorama of those occasions.
Western States 100 Qualifying Races and Their Attributes
Western States qualifiers are “primarily based only at the dimension of the race” with huge and established races getting precedence, and the one restriction being that races shorter than 100 miles should have no less than 8,202 ft (2,500 meters) of elevation acquire. The race group reiterates its manner is “primarily based only at the selection of runners and now not route issue.” This manner differs from that of alternative races, such because the Hardrock 100, the place many components are considered for qualifying races.
With Hardrock’s cumulative vertical acquire of 33,000 ft and a mean elevation of eleven,000 ft, its board has set stricter standards for its qualifying races. They have a look at knowledge about race traits comparable to prime elevation, lengthy steep climbs, critical climate, and publicity to falls to make sure entrants are ready to soundly whole the Hardrock 100.
Eager about this issue standards were given me within the variety of races incorporated within the Western States qualifiers. As a result of there’s no issue standards, some races are inherently more straightforward qualifiers. On the finish of the day, every race is as tricky as you select to make it and you spot runners push themselves to the threshold from 100 meters to 100 miles. What I need to focal point on on this phase are the standards that give a contribution to an athlete finishing a race within the needful qualifying time for a lottery price tag. Which races are perhaps to safe the typical runner a qualifier?
Dataset
On this phase, I have a look at all Western States qualifier races within the U.S. and Canada. The information is pulled from every race’s gpx recordsdata.
The usage of a elementary scatter plot view, I mapped the gap and elevation of Western States qualifiers for 2024:
Distance As opposed to Vertical Achieve within the Western States 100 Qualifiers
A couple of issues bounce out about this chart. First, we’ve our outliers up and to the correct, with 4 200-mile or longer races. Those 200-mile races are out of the scope of this text — and don’t get me began on 300-mile races. Understand that, should you whole such a races, you’re a monster and now not on the lookout for the ‘simple’ lottery access into Western States.
Casting off those outliers, we will be able to get a greater view of the 100-kilometer and 100-mile distances that I focal point on for the remainder of this phase.
On this graph, we see two major clusters at the x-axis across the 100k and 100-mile distances, with really extensive variation within the vertical acquire (y-axis) for identical distance occasions. For 100-mile occasions, this spans from the Hennepin Hundred Mile, which beneficial properties not up to 1,000 vertical ft to the Hardrock 100, which boasts over 33,000 ft of hiking.
This transformation is massive. A mountainous 100-mile route at elevation is an absolutely other race than a flat match of the similar distance at sea degree. Western States falls close to the center of the vertical acquire distribution for 100-mile occasions with round 18,000 ft of vertical acquire.
Vertical acquire is a very powerful issue, however what is going up should ultimately come down. (Except you’re the Cocodona 250 Mile, then you definitely simply stay going up.) Having a look at distance and internet acquire, we will be able to see a fairly other tale.
Distance As opposed to Web Achieve within the Western States 100 Qualifiers
Maximum classes are just about 0 internet acquire, being run on loops or beginning and finishing in identical places. The California classes take the crown for internet downhill, with Western States itself having essentially the most internet downhill, edging out the Angels Crest 100 Mile and the Canyons 100 Mile.
The gap in conjunction with vertical acquire and internet acquire are crucial components when inspecting how tricky a qualifying race is. Some other vital issue to attention when securing a qualifier is the cutoff time. Having a look at distance as opposed to cutoff time, we see a detailed correlation with variation because of different issue components of the route.
Distance As opposed to Cutoff Time within the Western States 100 Qualifiers
Maximum 100k cutoffs fall within the 17- to 22-hour vary, whilst maximum 100 milers are between 30 and 36 hours.
Distance and elevation acquire are the 2 most generally to be had knowledge issues round races and provides us an overview of the cutoff same old in extremely races. Eager about the Hardrock 100’s qualifier necessities, I sought after to gather knowledge round some further traits like elevation and lengthy, steep climbs to color a extra detailed image of those races.
I pulled this knowledge and compiled a dataset for all races from their gpx recordsdata. The extra variables I checked out but even so distance and ascent had been reasonable elevation, most elevation, sustained climbs of over 2,000 ft, and sustained climbs of over 3,000 ft. First of all, I sought after an summary of which variables had been maximum intently tied to route cutoff instances. Via plotting a heatmap of correlation between variables, we will be able to see which variables are intently associated with different variables.
This plot could be very colourful and amusing, however what does it truly let us know? The row I’m maximum fascinated with is how positive variables are correlated with cutoff time.
Zooming in in this backside row we see that distance is maximum correlated with cutoff time — no wonder there, whilst the variables subsequent maximum intently correlated to cutoff instances are vertical exchange and sustained climbs, which refers back to the selection of sustained climbs of greater than 2,000 and three,000 vertical ft, suggesting a mountainous route.
Predicted Occasions for Ultramarathons In comparison to Their Cutoffs
Bearing in mind those variables, I used to be curious to look if shall we resolve which races are theoretically essentially the most affordable to finish throughout the cutoff time. We’re, after all, restricted by way of knowledge and the next research does now not seize the various nuances of an extremely race. Regardless, I’m hoping you in finding the next research fascinating on the subject of eager about the relation between race options and cutoff time.
Regression Fashions to Display Anticipated Cutoff Occasions
Taking the former scatter plots taking a look at other options, I sought after to suit a regression style to view the predicted cutoff time. Right here we will be able to see the expected line for cutoff time primarily based off essentially the most intently correlated function, distance.
Putting off the 48-hour cutoff races outliers of the Hardrock 100, Fats Canine 120 Mile, and Merciless Jewel 100 Mile, we will be able to higher examine races with identical cutoff instances.
Including in additional variables we will be able to proceed to reinforce the accuracy of the style as we account for extra options of the race.
A Residual Plot Appearing How A lot a Race’s Cutoff Time Deviates from Anticipated
After accounting for the entire variables amassed we will be able to graph a residual plot appearing how a lot a race’s cutoff time deviates from what can be anticipated according to its options.
This graph is fascinating as it permits us to take a look at the knowledge issues with the biggest residual. The ones are the races that experience a decrease predicted cutoff time than the real cutoff time, i.e., a beneficiant relative cutoff time. In case you are chasing cutoffs, a metamorphosis of an hour or two might be the variation between finishing the race and timing out. In step with this style, the races with the biggest residuals (maximum beneficiant cutoffs) throughout 100k and 100-mile distances are the Dinosaur Valley 100k, the Misplaced Soul 100k, the Extremely-Path Harricana 125k, the Quebec Mega Path 100 Mile, the Awesome 100 Mile, and the Zion 100 Mile. To reiterate, those aren’t the perfect races, relatively the ones with essentially the most beneficiant cutoffs according to the options accounted for on this style.
I might have cherished to spend extra time on this house to construct out a extra whole style round ultramarathon route issue (keep tuned for this at some point), however, alas, cutoffs, this time of the editorial selection! Onto the takeaways.
Takeaways
- There are greater than 200 qualifying races to choose between. When taking into consideration a qualifying race, it is very important be aware that races fluctuate considerably in distance, elevation, and various different ways.
- In case you are taking a look to get a Western States qualifier, it is very important believe the cutoff time. A race might seem ‘more straightforward’ on paper, however may have a much less beneficiant cutoff time, thereby making it tricky to finish throughout the time constraint.
For the ones of you racing Western States this 12 months, perfect of success and take a second to comprehend what were given you to this second — particularly the ones of you who were given in with one lottery price tag!
Name for Feedback
- I like knowledge, however recognize it does now not inform the whole tale. What different components do you suppose give a contribution essentially the most to races being extra ‘tricky?’
- For the races I known as having essentially the most beneficiant cutoffs, are there any that you just disagree with according to different components that weren’t incorporated within the style?
- Are there any races you suppose are ‘more straightforward’ qualifiers?